The folks at Strikeforce bring us another good little middle of the week card that you can check out live on Showtime. The featured fight is a catchweight confusing #1 contender fight between Renato "Babalu" Sobral and "Ruthless" Robbie Lawler. Why is it confusing? Well they are fighting at a catchweight of 195lbs because Sobral is a contender at Lightheavyweight (205 lbs) and Lawler is a contender at Middleweight (185 lbs). So basically if Babalu wins he gets a shot at King Mo's LHW title. If Lawler wins he gets a shot at the Middleweight title. I guess the bigger question if Lawler wins is who is he going to fight? Current Strikeforce Middleweight champion Jake Shields seems likely that he's jumping ship to the UFC. So more than likely if Lawler wins he'll be facing Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza for a vacated Middleweight title. Anyway there are four main televised fights and that's what i'm previewing.
Lightweight Fight
KJ Noons (8-2) vs. Conor "Hurricane" Heun (8-3)
KJ Noons was the Elite XC lightweight champion, a belt that he earned by destroying current Strikeforce Welterweight champion Nick Diaz. He spent the last two years returning to professional boxing until March of this year making his MMA return in a decision win over Andre Amado at Dream 13. Noons has perhaps the heaviest hands in the lightweight division so expect him to want to stand and trade fists. He won't be afraid at all of Heun's standup in this fight. Heun hasn't fought in almost a year since dropping a decision in a fun brawl vs Jorge Gurgel at Strikeforce Challengers 2. Most of his wins come by submission but I think the Gurgel fight really showed that he prefers to stand and trade as well.
Prediction - KJ Noons KO round 1, Noons boxing will be too much for Heun watch for a big KO as Noons begins working his way up to a fight with Strikeforce lightweight champion Gilbert Melendez.
Middleweight Fight
Tim Kennedy (11-2) vs Trevor Prangley (22-5-1)
What Tim Kennedy lacks in experience he'll more than make up for it with pure talent. He was previously splitting his time training with his career as a US Army Ranger but now he's been training full time MMA. He had two big wins last year on Strikeforce Challengers cards over Nick Thompson and Zak Cummings and he hopes to keep on moving up the ladder in the Strikeforce Middleweight division. Prangley is a veteran of the sport that has fought everywhere, including a run in the UFC a few years ago. He's coming off a very disappointing draw against Karl Amoussou at Strikeforce Challengers 6. He's mainly a grappling and submissions specialist so expect him to do whatever he can to get this fight on the ground to submit Kennedy.
Prediction - Tim Kennedy wins by decision, Kennedy is the better striker he'll take advantage of that fact. Prangley is going to have a difficult time getting this fight to the ground and when he does I do not believe he has the ability to submit Kennedy, Jason "Mayhem" Miller couldn't so I doubt Prangley will.
Welterweight Fight
Marius "The Whitemare" Zaromskis (13-4) vs Evangelista "Cyborg" Santos (17-13)
Marius Zaromskis became a human head kick highlight reel with his run in DREAM and is currently their Welterweight Champion. His Strikeforce debut however was unsuccessful as he got absolutely dominated by Nick Diaz in a battle for the Strikeforce Welterweight title. Zaromskis is really going to want to prove himself to the Strikeforce audience in this fight and he'll be looking for the big head kick finish. "Cyborg" Santos is a journeyman Chute Boxe trained aggressive exciting striker that doesn't exactly have the greatest record in the world, but he sure as hell isn't a boring fighter. He has an advantage on the ground but I don't think he really cares about that. He'll stand and trade with Zaromskis.
Prediction - Marius Zaromskis TKO round 1 hopefully a sweet head kick. It won't be one of those wild striking fights as each one will have respect for each other's standup abilities but I think Zaromskis is too much for Cyborg to handle.
Main Event 195lb Catchweight Fight
Renato "Babalu" Sobral (35-8) vs "Ruthless" Robbie Lawler (17-5)
Babalu was let go by the UFC after his win over David Heath at UFC 74 for holding on to an Anaconda Choke for too long after the stoppage. After that he was on a great run of 4 more straight wins including capturing the Strikeforce Lightheavyweight title from Bobby Southworth. He dropped that title in his fight after being destroyed by Gegard Mousasi. After losing by submission to Jason "Mayhem" Miller in Icon Sport Lawler went on a huge run dominating everyone that stood in his way. He won the Icon Sport Middleweight title from UFC veteran Frank Trigg and then captured the EliteXC Middleweight title from Murilo "Ninja" Rua. His Strikeforce debut wasn't as successful losing the Strikeforce Middleweight title fight to Jake Shields. After that he had an awesome comeback over Dutch kickboxer Melvin Manhoef. Lawler like his nickname says is a relentless devastating striker. I believe Lawler has the heaviest hands in the world at Middleweight.
Prediction - Robbie Lawler by TKO round 1. Lawler actually weighed more than Sobral at the weigh ins, but not by much. I don't think Sobral has a huge cut to 185 so I don't think the size difference will make much of a difference. Sobral has a huge advantage on the ground but I doubt that he has the takedown ability to get the fight there. Lawler is going to pound on Sobral to get himself back in title contention.
Here's a cool Robbie Lawler highlight video from the Strikeforce site:
Strikeforce - Los Angeles Preview and Predictions
